Jake Arrieta, a Cy Young Award winner in 2015, was set to anchor a strong rotation. The signing of right fielder Jason Heyward from the St. Louis Cardinals bolstered a potent offense that already included Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.
Fourteen of 31 experts surveyed by ESPN had the Cubs winning the championship. The optimism came despite the team’s star-crossed history, including a 107-year stretch without a championship and a sweep by the Mets in last year’s National League Championship Series.
So far, the experts look smart. The Cubs, 6-2 winners over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday, have the best record in baseball, at 20-6, and lead the strong N.L. Central by six games, the biggest division lead in the majors.
While the Cubs’ .769 winning percentage is extraordinary, it is not completely off the charts. Last year’s leaders through the games of May 3, the Cardinals, were at .750, and most leaders at this point in recent times were around .700. There is always a hot team or two at the beginning of the season, and many of them fade.
What is different this year is that the Cubs are backing up their record by winning their games by large margins. Going into Wednesday night’s games, the Cubs led the major leagues in scoring with 159 runs and had given up the fewest, 66.
The Cubs’ last three games, 6-2, 7-1 and 7-2 victories over the Pirates, are typical. Chicago won three of four over the Reds by scores of 16-0, 8-1 and 9-0. And four of its six losses this season were by only one or two runs.
The Cubs’ run differential of plus-93 is remarkable for this point in the season. Last year, the Cardinals were plus-40, and the major league leader is usually around plus-50 on May 4.
While many teams that start fast in April are propelled by a healthy dose of luck, the Cubs have been somewhat unlucky. Using Bill James’s Pythagorean formula, scoring 159 runs and surrendering 66 should lead to a .833 winning percentage: The Cubs should probably be 22-4. Over a 162-game season, an .833 percentage would lead to a mind-boggling 135 wins, which would destroy the record of 116 victories held by the 2001 Seattle Mariners and the 1906 Cubs.
Another statistic that helps quantify luck is Babip, or batting average on balls in play, a number that measures how often balls that are put in play fall for hits. Although batters have some control over this, a huge amount of it is luck. Teams and players with a high Babip almost always fade as their luck evens out.
But as of now, the Cubs are not getting especially lucky in Babip. Their figure through Tuesday was .297, a bit below the league average. In contrast, the Pirates, who led the N.L. in Babip at .335, may be in for a fall.
The Cubs’ pitching probably cannot stay quite as hot as it has been: Arrieta, Jon Lester and Jason Hammel are a combined 13-1 with E.R.A.s under 2.00.
But most of the pieces that make up the Cubs’ offensive numbers seem sustainable. Center fielder Dexter Fowler will probably not keep hitting .348, but many of the other players are putting up realistic numbers.
Bryant (.303, four homers) is improving, as expected, in his second year, and Rizzo (.260, nine homers) is well within a plausible performance range. Other players, like Heyward (.211, no homers) and Addison Russell (.224, two homers) are actually underperforming. If they return to expected levels, the Cubs’ offense will be even more potent.
Of course, it is only May. Injuries, which are also heavily dependent on luck, will play a big role in the season. And even if you concede a postseason spot to the Cubs, short playoff series often bring unpleasant surprises to dominant teams.
But as of now, Chicago is looking as powerful as any Cubs team in 100 years.
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